NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its official winter 2026-27 outlook on September 17, and the headline is a strong one: El Nino is here and strengthening, with better-than-90-percent odds of a very strong event through the heart of winter — with a real shot at the strongest event on record going back to 1950.
What does that mean for the Selkirks? The classic El Nino signature favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the West. For the Pacific Northwest, the winter precipitation outlook sits near equal chances — no strong wet or dry signal — while temperatures lean above normal. In practice, cold will likely arrive in sharp bursts rather than long settled freezes, and valley precipitation will fall as rain more often than usual.
Forecasters add caveats. A negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation — cooler-than-normal water off the West Coast — could blunt some of the El Nino warmth, and climate scientists have called this event's unprecedented strength "uncharted territory" that could defy expectations.
The outlook is a seasonal nudge, not a snowfall forecast. It says nothing about how many powder days the mountain will see, and this piece makes no claims about ski operations or snow totals. For Schweitzer, winter prep continues toward the targeted November 27 opening the resort announced in its winter lineup. The season will arrive on its own terms — El Nino or not, the Selkirks get their storms.
Travel tip for the season ahead: in a warmer-leaning winter, watch snow levels closely when planning early-season trips, and keep backup dates flexible.
A typical El Nino brings mild winters and lower snowpacks to the Northwest, but forecasters stress that a mild season on paper can still deliver a week of dangerous cold or a sudden storm — seasonal outlooks show what is more likely, not exactly what weather any one location will get. The safest approach is the one the forecasters recommend: prepare for the lean, but keep watching the sky.